Causes of death in children with congenital Zika syndrome in Brazil, 2015 to 2018: A nationwide record linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Children with congenital Zika syndrome (CZS) have severe damage to the peripheral and central nervous system (CNS), greatly increasing the risk of death. However, there is no information on the sequence of the underlying, intermediate, immediate, and contributing causes of deaths among these children. The aims of this study are describe the sequence of events leading to death of children with CZS up to 36 months of age and their probability of dying from a given cause, 2015 to 2018. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In a population-based study, we linked administrative data on live births, deaths, and cases of children with CZS from the SINASC (Live Birth Information System), the SIM (Mortality Information System), and the RESP (Public Health Event Records), respectively. Confirmed and probable cases of CZS were those that met the criteria established by the Brazilian Ministry of Health. The information on causes of death was collected from death certificates (DCs) using the World Health Organization (WHO) DC template. We estimated proportional mortality (PM%) among children with CZS and among children with non-Zika CNS congenital anomalies (CA) by 36 months of age and proportional mortality ratio by cause (PMRc). A total of 403 children with confirmed and probable CZS who died up to 36 months of age were included in the study; 81.9% were younger than 12 months of age. Multiple congenital malformations not classified elsewhere, and septicemia unspecified, with 18 (PM = 4.5%) and 17 (PM = 4.2%) deaths, respectively, were the most attested underlying causes of death. Unspecified septicemia (29 deaths and PM = 11.2%) and newborn respiratory failure (40 deaths and PM = 12.1%) were, respectively, the predominant intermediate and immediate causes of death. Fetuses and newborns affected by the mother's infectious and parasitic diseases, unspecified cerebral palsy, and unspecified severe protein-caloric malnutrition were the underlying causes with the greatest probability of death in children with CZS (PMRc from 10.0 to 17.0) when compared to the group born with non-Zika CNS anomalies. Among the intermediate and immediate causes of death, pneumonitis due to food or vomiting and unspecified seizures (PMRc = 9.5, each) and unspecified bronchopneumonia (PMRc = 5.0) were notable. As contributing causes, fetus and newborn affected by the mother's infectious and parasitic diseases (PMRc = 7.3), unspecified cerebral palsy, and newborn seizures (PMRc = 4.5, each) were more likely to lead to death in children with CZS than in the comparison group. The main limitations of this study were the use of a secondary database without additional clinical information and potential misclassification of cases and controls. CONCLUSION: The sequence of causes and circumstances involved in the deaths of the children with CZS highlights the greater vulnerability of these children to infectious and respiratory conditions compared to children with abnormalities of the CNS not related to Zika.

Population-based surveillance for congenital zika virus syndrome: a latent class analysis of recorded cases from 2015-2018.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to describe clinical findings and determine the medium-term survival of congenital zika syndrome (CZS) suspected cases. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using routine register-based linked data. It included all suspected cases of CZS born in Brazil from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2018, and followed up from birth until death, 36 months, or December 31, 2018, whichever came first. Latent class analysis was used to cluster unconfirmed cases into classes with similar combinations of anthropometry at birth, imaging findings, maternally reported rash, region, and year of birth. Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted, and Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to determine mortality up to 36 months. RESULTS: We followed 11,850 suspected cases of CZS, of which 28.3% were confirmed, 9.3% inconclusive and 62.4% unconfirmed. Confirmed cases had almost two times higher mortality when compared with unconfirmed cases. Among unconfirmed cases, we identified three distinct clusters with different mortality trajectories. The highest mortality risk was observed in those with abnormal imaging findings compatible with congenital infections (HR = 12.6; IC95%8.8-18.0) and other abnormalities (HR = 11.6; IC95%8.6-15.6) compared with those with normal imaging findings. The risk was high in those with severe microcephaly (HR = 8.2; IC95%6.4-10.6) and macrocephaly (HR = 6.6; IC95%4.5-9.7) compared with normal head size. CONCLUSION: Abnormal imaging and head circumference appear to be the main drivers of the increased mortality among suspected cases of CZS. We suggest identifying children who are more likely to die and have a greater need to optimise interventions and resource allocation regardless of the final diagnoses.

Maternal mortality and COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to collect and analyze data from different sources to have a general overview of COVID-19-related maternal deaths in Brazil, as well as to compare data with worldwide reports. STUDY DESIGN: We systematically searched data about COVID-19 maternal deaths from the Brazilian Ministry of Health surveillance system, State Departments of Health epidemiological reports, and media coverage. Data about timing of symptom onset and death (pregnancy or postpartum), gestational age, mode of birth, maternal age, comorbidities and/or risk factors, date of death, and place of death were retrieved when available. RESULTS: We identified 20 COVID-19-related maternal deaths, age range 20-43 years. Symptoms onset was reported as on pregnancy for 12 cases, postpartum for 3 cases, and during the cesarean section for 1 case (missing data for 4). In 16 cases, death occurred in the postpartum period. At least one comorbidity or risk factor was present in 11 cases (missing data for 4). Asthma was the most common risk factor (5/11). Ten cases occurred in the Northeast region, and nine cases occurred in the Southeast region (5 of them in São Paulo, the first epicenter of COVID-19 in the country). CONCLUSIONS: To the best of our knowledge, this is the largest available series of maternal deaths due to COVID-19. Barriers to access healthcare, differences in pandemic containment measures in the country and high prevalence of concomitant risk factors for COVID-19 severe disease may play a role in the observed disparity compared to worldwide reports on maternal outcomes.

Characteristics and outcomes of pregnant women with SARS-CoV-2 infection and other severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in Brazil from January to November 2020.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge about COVID-19 in pregnancy is limited, and evidence on the impact of the infection during pregnancy and postpartum is still emerging. AIM: To analyze maternal morbidity and mortality due to severe acute respiratory infections (SARI), including COVID-19, in Brazil. METHODS: National surveillance data from the SIVEP-Gripe (Sistema de Informação de Vigilância Epidemiológica da Gripe) was used to describe currently and recently pregnant women aged 10-49 years hospitalized for SARI from January through November, 2020. SARI cases were grouped into: COVID-19; influenza or other detected agent SARI; and SARI of unknown etiology. Characteristics, symptoms and outcomes were presented by SARI type and region. Binomial proportion and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for outcomes were obtained using the Clopper-Pearson method. RESULTS: Of 945,460 SARI cases in the SIVEP-Gripe, we selected 11,074 women aged 10-49 who were pregnant (7964) or recently pregnant (3110). COVID-19 was confirmed in 49.4% cases; 1.7% had influenza or another etiological agent; and 48.9% had SARI of unknown etiology. The pardo race/ethnic group accounted for 50% of SARI cases. Hypertension/Other cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes, and obesity were the most common comorbidities. A total of 362 women with COVID-19 (6.6%; 95%CI 6.0-7.3) died. Mortality was 4.7% (2.2-8.8) among influenza patients, and 3.3% (2.9-3.8) among those with SARI of unknown etiology. The South-East, Northeast and North regions recorded the highest frequencies of mortality among COVID-19 patients. CONCLUSION: Mortality among pregnant and recently pregnant women with SARIs was elevated among those with COVID-19, particularly in regions where maternal mortality is already high.

Classification algorithm for congenital Zika Syndrome: characterizations, diagnosis and validation.

Zika virus was responsible for the microcephaly epidemic in Brazil which began in October 2015 and brought great challenges to the scientific community and health professionals in terms of diagnosis and classification. Due to the difficulties in correctly identifying Zika cases, it is necessary to develop an automatic procedure to classify the probability of a CZS case from the clinical data. This work presents a machine learning algorithm capable of achieving this from structured and unstructured available data. The proposed algorithm reached 83% accuracy with textual information in medical records and image reports and 76% accuracy in classifying data without textual information. Therefore, the proposed algorithm has the potential to classify CZS cases in order to clarify the real effects of this epidemic, as well as to contribute to health surveillance in monitoring possible future epidemics.

Characteristics and outcomes of pregnant women with SARS-CoV-2 infection and other severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in Brazil from January to November 2020

ABSTRACT Background: Knowledge about COVID-19 in pregnancy is limited, and evidence on the impact of the infection during pregnancy and postpartum is still emerging. Aim: To analyze maternal morbidity and mortality due to severe acute respiratory infections (SARI), including COVID-19, in Brazil. Methods: National surveillance data from the SIVEP-Gripe (Sistema de Informação de Vigilância Epidemiológica da Gripe) was used to describe currently and recently pregnant women aged 10-49 years hospitalized for SARI from January through November, 2020. SARI cases were grouped into: COVID-19; influenza or other detected agent SARI; and SARI of unknown etiology. Characteristics, symptoms and outcomes were presented by SARI type and region. Binomial proportion and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for outcomes were obtained using the Clopper-Pearson method. Results: Of 945,460 SARI cases in the SIVEP-Gripe, we selected 11,074 women aged 10-49 who were pregnant (7964) or recently pregnant (3110). COVID-19 was confirmed in 49.4% cases; 1.7% had influenza or another etiological agent; and 48.9% had SARI of unknown etiology. The pardo race/ethnic group accounted for 50% of SARI cases. Hypertension/Other cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes, and obesity were the most common comorbidities. A total of 362 women with COVID-19 (6.6%; 95%CI 6.0-7.3) died. Mortality was 4.7% (2.2-8.8) among influenza patients, and 3.3% (2.9-3.8) among those with SARI of unknown etiology. The South-East, Northeast and North regions recorded the highest frequencies of mortality among COVID-19 patients. Conclusion: Mortality among pregnant and recently pregnant women with SARIs was elevated among those with COVID-19, particularly in regions where maternal mortality is already high.

New Insights on the Zika Virus Arrival in the Americas and Spatiotemporal Reconstruction of the Epidemic Dynamics in Brazil.

Zika virus (ZIKV) became a worldwide public health emergency after its introduction in the Americas. Brazil was implicated as central in the ZIKV dispersion, however, a better understanding of the pathways the virus took to arrive in Brazil and the dispersion within the country is needed. An updated genome dataset was assembled with publicly available data. Bayesian phylogeography methods were applied to reconstruct the spatiotemporal history of ZIKV in the Americas and with more detail inside Brazil. Our analyses reconstructed the Brazilian state of Pernambuco as the likely point of introduction of ZIKV in Brazil, possibly during the 2013 Confederations Cup. Pernambuco played an important role in spreading the virus to other Brazilian states. Our results also underscore the long cryptic circulation of ZIKV in all analyzed locations in Brazil. Conclusions: This study brings new insights about the early moments of ZIKV in the Americas, especially regarding the Brazil-Haiti cluster at the base of the American clade and describing for the first time migration patterns within Brazil.

Case Fatality Rate Related to Microcephaly Congenital Zika Syndrome and Associated Factors: A Nationwide Retrospective Study in Brazil †.

BACKGROUND: The clinical manifestations of microcephaly/congenital Zika syndrome (microcephaly/CZS) have harmful consequences on the child's health, increasing vulnerability to childhood morbidity and mortality. This study analyzes the case fatality rate and child-maternal characteristics of cases and deaths related to microcephaly/CZS in Brazil, 2015-2017. METHODS: Population-based study developed by linkage of three information systems. We estimate frequencies of cases, deaths, case fatality rate related to microcephaly/CZS according to child and maternal characteristics and causes of death. Multivariate logistic regression models were applied. RESULTS: The microcephaly/CZS case fatality rate was 10% (95% CI 9.2-10.7). Death related to microcephaly/CZS was associated to moderate (OR = 2.15; 95% CI 1.63-2.83), and very low birth weight (OR = 3.77; 95% CI 2.20-6.46); late preterm births (OR = 1.65; 95% CI 1.21-2.23), Apgar < 7 at 1st (OR = 5.98; 95% CI 4.46-8.02) and 5th minutes (OR = 4.13; 95% CI 2.78-6.13), among others. CONCLUSIONS: A high microcephaly/CZS case fatality rate and important factors associated with deaths related to this syndrome were observed. These results can alert health teams to these problems and increase awareness about the factors that may be associated with worse outcomes.

Genomic detection of a virus lineage replacement event of dengue virus serotype 2 in Brazil, 2019.

BACKGROUND Despite efforts to mitigate the impact of dengue virus (DENV) epidemics, the virus remains a public health problem in tropical and subtropical regions around the world. Most DENV cases in the Americas between January and July 2019 were reported in Brazil. São Paulo State in the southeast of Brazil has reported nearly half of all DENV infections in the country. OBJECTIVES To understand the origin and dynamics of the 2019 DENV outbreak. METHODS Here using portable nanopore sequencing we generated20 new DENV genome sequences from viremic patients with suspected dengue infection residing in two of the most-affected municipalities of São Paulo State, Araraquara and São José do Rio Preto. We conducted a comprehensive phylogenetic analysis with 1,630 global DENV strains to better understand the evolutionary history of the DENV lineages that currently circulate in the region. FINDINGS The new outbreak strains were classified as DENV2 genotype III (American/Asian genotype). Our analysis shows that the 2019 outbreak is the result of a novel DENV lineage that was recently introduced to Brazil from the Caribbean region. Dating phylogeographic analysis suggests that DENV2-III BR-4 was introduced to Brazil in or around early 2014, possibly from the Caribbean region. MAIN CONCLUSIONS Our study describes the early detection of a newly introduced and rapidly-expanding DENV2 virus lineage in Brazil.

Interdependence between confirmed and discarded cases of dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses in Brazil: A multivariate time-series analysis.

The co-circulation of different arboviruses in the same time and space poses a significant threat to public health given their rapid geographic dispersion and serious health, social, and economic impact. Therefore, it is crucial to have high quality of case registration to estimate the real impact of each arboviruses in the population. In this work, a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model was developed to investigate the interrelationships between discarded and confirmed cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in Brazil. We used data from the Brazilian National Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) from 2010 to 2017. There were three peaks in the series of dengue notification in this period occurring in 2013, 2015 and in 2016. The series of reported cases of both Zika and chikungunya reached their peak in late 2015 and early 2016. The VAR model shows that the Zika series have a significant impact on the dengue series and vice versa, suggesting that several discarded and confirmed cases of dengue could actually have been cases of Zika. The model also suggests that the series of confirmed and discarded chikungunya cases are almost independent of the cases of Zika, however, affecting the series of dengue. In conclusion, co-circulation of arboviruses with similar symptoms could have lead to misdiagnosed diseases in the surveillance system. We argue that the routinely use of mathematical and statistical models in association with traditional symptom-surveillance could help to decrease such errors and to provide early indication of possible future outbreaks. These findings address the challenges regarding notification biases and shed new light on how to handle reported cases based only in clinical-epidemiological criteria when multiples arboviruses co-circulate in the same population.

Evolutionary Dynamics and Dissemination Pattern of the SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.33 During the Early Pandemic Phase in Brazil.

A previous study demonstrates that most of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) Brazilian strains fell in three local clades that were introduced from Europe around late February 2020. Here we investigated in more detail the origin of the major and most widely disseminated SARS-CoV-2 Brazilian lineage B.1.1.33. We recovered 190 whole viral genomes collected from 13 Brazilian states from February 29 to April 31, 2020 and combined them with other B.1.1 genomes collected globally. Our genomic survey confirms that lineage B.1.1.33 is responsible for a variable fraction of the community viral transmissions in Brazilian states, ranging from 2% of all SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Pernambuco to 80% of those from Rio de Janeiro. We detected a moderate prevalence (5-18%) of lineage B.1.1.33 in some South American countries and a very low prevalence (<1%) in North America, Europe, and Oceania. Our study reveals that lineage B.1.1.33 evolved from an ancestral clade, here designated B.1.1.33-like, that carries one of the two B.1.1.33 synapomorphic mutations. The B.1.1.33-like lineage may have been introduced from Europe or arose in Brazil in early February 2020 and a few weeks later gave origin to the lineage B.1.1.33. These SARS-CoV-2 lineages probably circulated during February 2020 and reached all Brazilian regions and multiple countries around the world by mid-March, before the implementation of air travel restrictions in Brazil. Our phylodynamic analysis also indicates that public health interventions were partially effective to control the expansion of lineage B.1.1.33 in Rio de Janeiro because its median effective reproductive number (R e ) was drastically reduced by about 66% during March 2020, but failed to bring it to below one. Continuous genomic surveillance of lineage B.1.1.33 might provide valuable information about epidemic dynamics and the effectiveness of public health interventions in some Brazilian states.

Genomic detection of a virus lineage replacement event of dengue virus serotype 2 in Brazil, 2019

BACKGROUND Despite efforts to mitigate the impact of dengue virus (DENV) epidemics, the virus remains a public health problem in tropical and subtropical regions around the world. Most DENV cases in the Americas between January and July 2019 were reported in Brazil. São Paulo State in the southeast of Brazil has reported nearly half of all DENV infections in the country. OBJECTIVES To understand the origin and dynamics of the 2019 DENV outbreak. METHODS Here using portable nanopore sequencing we generated20 new DENV genome sequences from viremic patients with suspected dengue infection residing in two of the most-affected municipalities of São Paulo State, Araraquara and São José do Rio Preto. We conducted a comprehensive phylogenetic analysis with 1,630 global DENV strains to better understand the evolutionary history of the DENV lineages that currently circulate in the region. FINDINGS The new outbreak strains were classified as DENV2 genotype III (American/Asian genotype). Our analysis shows that the 2019 outbreak is the result of a novel DENV lineage that was recently introduced to Brazil from the Caribbean region. Dating phylogeographic analysis suggests that DENV2-III BR-4 was introduced to Brazil in or around early 2014, possibly from the Caribbean region. MAIN CONCLUSIONS Our study describes the early detection of a newly introduced and rapidly-expanding DENV2 virus lineage in Brazil.

Genomic detection of a virus lineage replacement event of dengue virus serotype 2 in Brazil, 2019

BACKGROUND Despite efforts to mitigate the impact of dengue virus (DENV) epidemics, the virus remains a public health problem in tropical and subtropical regions around the world. Most DENV cases in the Americas between January and July 2019 were reported in Brazil. São Paulo State in the southeast of Brazil has reported nearly half of all DENV infections in the country. OBJECTIVES To understand the origin and dynamics of the 2019 DENV outbreak. METHODS Here using portable nanopore sequencing we generated20 new DENV genome sequences from viremic patients with suspected dengue infection residing in two of the most-affected municipalities of São Paulo State, Araraquara and São José do Rio Preto. We conducted a comprehensive phylogenetic analysis with 1,630 global DENV strains to better understand the evolutionary history of the DENV lineages that currently circulate in the region. FINDINGS The new outbreak strains were classified as DENV2 genotype III (American/Asian genotype). Our analysis shows that the 2019 outbreak is the result of a novel DENV lineage that was recently introduced to Brazil from the Caribbean region. Dating phylogeographic analysis suggests that DENV2-III BR-4 was introduced to Brazil in or around early 2014, possibly from the Caribbean region. MAIN CONCLUSIONS Our study describes the early detection of a newly introduced and rapidly-expanding DENV2 virus lineage in Brazil.

Impact evaluation of Zika epidemic on congenital anomalies registration in Brazil: An interrupted time series analysis.

This study aimed to assess the impact of the Zika epidemic on the registration of birth defects in Brazil. We used an interrupted time series analysis design to identify changes in the trends in the registration of congenital anomalies. We obtained monthly data from Brazilian Live Birth Information System and used two outcome definitions: 1) rate of congenital malformation of the brain and eye (likely to be affected by Zika and its complications) 2) rate of congenital malformation not related to the brain or eye unlikely to be causally affected by Zika. The period between maternal infection with Zika and diagnosis of congenital abnormality attributable to the infection is around six months. We therefore used September 2015 as the interruption point in the time series, six months following March 2015 when cases of Zika started to increase. For the purposes of this analysis, we considered the period from January 2010 to September 2015 to be "pre-Zika event," and the period from just after September 2015 to December 2017 to be "post-Zika event." We found that immediately after the interruption point, there was a great increase in the notification rate of congenital anomalies of 14.9/10,000 live births in the brain and eye group and of 5.2/10,000 live births in the group not related with brain or eye malformations. This increase in reporting was in all regions of the country (except in the South) and especially in the Northeast. In the period "post-Zika event", unlike the brain and eye group which showed a monthly decrease, the group without brain or eye malformations showed a slow but significant increase (relative to the pre-Zika trend) of 0.2/10,000 live births. These findings suggest an overall improvement in the registration of birth malformations, including malformations that were not attributed to Zika, during and after the Zika epidemic.

Congenital Zika virus syndrome in Brazil: a case series of the first 1501 livebirths with complete investigation.

BACKGROUND: In November, 2015, an epidemic of microcephaly was reported in Brazil, which was later attributed to congenital Zika virus infection. 7830 suspected cases had been reported to the Brazilian Ministry of Health by June 4, 2016, but little is known about their characteristics. We aimed to describe these newborn babies in terms of clinical findings, anthropometry, and survival. METHODS: We reviewed all 1501 liveborn infants for whom investigation by medical teams at State level had been completed as of Feb 27, 2016, and classified suspected cases into five categories based on neuroimaging and laboratory results for Zika virus and other relevant infections. Definite cases had laboratory evidence of Zika virus infection; highly probable cases presented specific neuroimaging findings, and negative laboratory results for other congenital infections; moderately probable cases had specific imaging findings but other infections could not be ruled out; somewhat probable cases had imaging findings, but these were not reported in detail by the local teams; all other newborn babies were classified as discarded cases. Head circumference by gestational age was assessed with InterGrowth standards. First week mortality and history of rash were provided by the State medical teams. FINDINGS: Between Nov 19, 2015, and Feb 27, 2015, investigations were completed for 1501 suspected cases reported to the Brazilian Ministry of Health, of whom 899 were discarded. Of the remainder 602 cases, 76 were definite, 54 highly probable, 181 moderately probable, and 291 somewhat probable of congenital Zika virus syndrome. Clinical, anthropometric, and survival differences were small among the four groups. Compared with these four groups, the 899 discarded cases had larger head circumferences (mean Z scores -1·54 vs -3·13, difference 1·58 [95% CI 1·45-1·72]); lower first-week mortality (14 per 1000 vs 51 per 1000; rate ratio 0·28 [95% CI 0·14-0·56]); and were less likely to have a history of rash during pregnancy (20·7% vs 61·4%, ratio 0·34 [95% CI 0·27-0·42]). Rashes in the third trimester of pregnancy were associated with brain abnormalities despite normal sized heads. One in five definite or probable cases presented head circumferences in the normal range (above -2 SD below the median of the InterGrowth standard) and for one third of definite and probable cases there was no history of a rash during pregnancy. The peak of the epidemic occurred in late November, 2015. INTERPRETATION: Zika virus congenital syndrome is a new teratogenic disease. Because many definite or probable cases present normal head circumference values and their mothers do not report having a rash, screening criteria must be revised in order to detect all affected newborn babies. FUNDING: Brazilian Ministry of Health, Pan American Health Organization, and Wellcome Trust.

The Epidemic of Zika Virus-Related Microcephaly in Brazil: Detection, Control, Etiology, and Future Scenarios.

We describe the epidemic of microcephaly in Brazil, its detection and attempts to control it, the suspected causal link with Zika virus infection during pregnancy, and possible scenarios for the future. In October 2015, in Pernambuco, Brazil, an increase in the number of newborns with microcephaly was reported. Mothers of the affected newborns reported rashes during pregnancy and no exposure to other potentially teratogenic agents. Women delivering in October would have been in the first trimester of pregnancy during the peak of a Zika epidemic in March. By the end of 2015, 4180 cases of suspected microcephaly had been reported. Zika spread to other American countries and, in February 2016, the World Health Organization declared the Zika epidemic a public health emergency of international concern. This unprecedented situation underscores the urgent need to establish the evidence of congenital infection risk by gestational week and accrue knowledge. There is an urgent call for a Zika vaccine, better diagnostic tests, effective treatment, and improved mosquito-control methods.